CLICK TO PLAY VIDEO

JUMP to:
BRIAN’s predictions

JUMP TO:
significant current events

 

JUMP TO:
INTEREST RATES, BUYER SENTIMENTS, SELLER SENTIMENTS, GENERAL CONSUMER SENTIMENTS, WEEK on WEEK MARKET

JUMP TO:
AVERAGE DOM, # new listings, INVENTORY, Median of closed

JUMP to:
OTHER TRENDS HISTORICALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR

News in 3-min

CURRENT TRENDS

 

  • 7.05% Interest Rates (avg 30yr conv), Up m/m, down w/w

    • Mortgage rates dropped to 6.11% in early September due to anticipation of a fed rate cut but have risen over 7.1% since due to a strong Jobs Report and a higher-than-anticipated CPI report. *Reminder: Rates are not tied to Fed Rates but 10-Yr Yield. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed

  • Buyer Sentiments up m/m, up w/w

    • Buyers are excited how rates have dropped since the 7.5% high early this year and 8.1% high at the end of 2023, even though they came up from 6.1% in August. As expected, buyers holding off until the elections (no matter who won) hit the ground running the week after with a surge of buyer activity, with more pendings per month than new listings. They will remain excited but will become less motivated until the new year.

    • New buyers have also started looking with increased open house activity in SFHs but most won’t be serious until the new year as we see every year.

  • Seller Sentiments up m/m, up w/w

    • Sellers are generally confident are playing it safe and waiting to list in 2025 where economists are unanimously bullish nationwide — especially for Seattle Metro.

    • “Golden Handcuffs”: 84.2% of current homeowners have a sub-6% rate, 74.6% sub-5%, and 56.2% are sub-4 %. We expect resale to be low for many more years until lower interest rates encourage more sellers to consider upsizing or downsizing, but most economists don’t believe we will see sub-5% anytime soon. Few people are selling outside of necessity or major life changes, but more than last year.

  • WoW

    • Pending listings saw a decline, except for a sudden increase in most areas and notable rises in Pierce, Whatcom, San Juan, and Island counties. New listings overall have declined slightly, following traditional seasonal patterns. The median sale price remains stable, and the number of days on market has decreased slightly.

  • MTD

    • We are currently observing typical seasonal trends and continue to outperform compared to this time last year. However, compared to last month, there has been a decline in pending listings, as well as in active and sold listings across most areas.

  • YoY

    • October saw a notable increase in buyer activity compared to the previous year, driven by a surge in new listings and growing buyer confidence in the market. This uptick resulted in more properties going pending, alongside increases in both active listings and sold listings. Additionally, the average days on market have decreased, although they remain slightly higher than last year, and the median sale price has also experienced an upward trend.

 

CURRENT STATS

KING COUNTY

DOM: 30 | Median Active Price: $800K | Median Sale Price: $865K

SEATTLE

DOM: 35 | Median Active Price: $769K | Median Sale Price: $778K

EASTSIDE

DOM: 19 | Median Active Price: $1.324M | Median Sale Price: $1.404M

PIERCE

DOM: 41 | Median Active Price: $620K | Median Sale Price: $550K

SNOHOMISH

DOM: 35 | Median Actve Price: $775K | Median Sale Price: $750K

 

BRIAN’S FORECAST

  • *Updated Interest rates: Q4’24 Avg 7% (fluctuating 6.75-7.25); Q1’25 6.75% (fluctuating 6.5-7); Q4’25 6.25% (fluctuating 6-6.5).

  • Increase buyer competition in Q1/Q2’25

    • Widespread use of escalation clauses with promises to pay additional down in case of low appraisals or even waived financing in all of 2025 from the vast number of sidelined buyers, our growing population, Amazon and half dozen major companies returning to full return to office (1/1/25), and those “typical” new buyers each spring/summer.

    • Improved condo market from increased DT workers. Also increased metro traffic will increase desired urban living or at least pied-à-terres.

    • Bully offers will increase in the Eastside in Q1 and Seattle + Seattle metro will see frequent bully offers by Q2.

    • Increased absorption rate and decreased monthly supply due to World class events like 2025 FIFA Club World Cup in June ‘25 will increase buyer activity before Seattle’s hosting of FIFA’s ‘26 World Cup but won’t encourage sellers to sell

  • Continued low inventory for rest of decade

    • Minor bump in inventory in 2025 as more sellers will be more comfortable becoming buyers themselves with the lower interest rates and increased consumer confidence.

    • All economists agree of not enough housing at least through the decade nationwide but especially in Seattle metro where for decades it has been normal to only have 3-4 month inventory opposed to a “balanced” 6 months

 

HEADLINE NEWS

 

HISTORICAL TRENDS

Click bait headlines report these trends as if they are unprecedented - These graphs show trends similar to patterns we have seen happen nationwide and through several decades.

Data from 2017-2019/2021-2023 in Seattle, Mercer Island, Kirkand, Bellevue, Medina, Clyde Hill from WA-520 to I90

  • New Listings most frequent March-October

  • Most homes to choose from in October

  • Month Supply is the time it takes for the current active listings to deplete at the current sales pace. Very low in spring and summer despite having the most new listings, indicating higher buyer activity

Data from 2017-2019/2021-2023 in Seattle, Mercer Island, Kirkand, Bellevue, Medina, Clyde Hill from WA-520 to I90

  • Sale Price/Original Listing Price is highest in May and lowest in January but is a 2-6 week lagging indicator based on a successful sale and doesn’t include the original prices of prior unsuccessful listings (a home may have taken several listings over many months to sell).

  • Average time on market lowest in May, highest in December and doesn’t include the time a listing has spent on market in a prior unsuccessful listing (a home may have taken several listings over many months to sell).

  • New loan applications peak mid to late January each year.

  • Yellow markers indicate the highest point of applications in each year (January); Blue marker is the last reported data for that year (End of December)

  • National average time a buyer closes after their most recent preapproval is 50-days with a 45 day transaction. It is common in Seattle Greater to search for 3-9 months and transact in 15-28 days.

Average Fixed 30 Year Mortgage Rates

Brian’s Client Q&A: If fed rates don’t affect mortgage rates, what does? 10Y Treasury bond, Inflation/CPI/Jobs Reports, World Events.
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
https://www.epi.org/indicators/unemployment/
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/